Sim Season results for my player prop bets

My last post included 6 individual player prop bets for the new NBA season. I picked them largely on gut feel and then today I came across the final “Sim Season” results from Basketball Prospectus.

With the help of Strat-o-Matic they simulated the entire NBA season, but using rosters as of July 1 so the results aren’t very useful in forecasting team performance. But I was very interested to see how my 6 player bets turned out:

  • Amare Stoudemire UNDER 25.5 points per game. The projection says 23.9 points per game, so I’m 1-0. Carmelo Anthony led the Knicks at 27.2 ppg.
  • Derrick Rose OVER 8 assists per game. The projection had him at exactly 8.0 assists per game. I suppose an extra decimal point might solve it, but let’s just call this a push.
  • Brandon Knight UNDER 12.5 points per game. The simulation had him at 4.8 points per game, so that’s an easy win. They had him averaging only 11 minutes per game as the 5th guard on the Pistons (behind Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon, Tracy McGrady and Will Bynum). Of course McGrady is gone, but even still so this one inspires confidence. I’m 2-0-1.
  • Dwight Howard UNDER 13.5 rebounds per game. I cheated a bit on this one as my pick was based in part on the simulation of the first 5 weeks of the season when Howard was averaging between 10 and 11 rebounds per game. The projection has him finishing the season with 12.5 rpg. I’m 3-0-1.
  • Steve Nash OVER 10.5 assists per game. Basketball Prospectus showed Nash leading the NBA in assists again with 11.6 per game. That’s another winner.
  • Joakim Noah OVER 10.5 rebounds per game. The projection shows 11.0 per game. I win again.

So according to the BP simulation, at least, all of my bets are winners except for one push. Which means nothing at this point, but I feel a lot better than if they had gone against me.


About JamieVannStruth

Consulting economist based in Vancouver, BC. Specializes in local economic development, economic impact analysis, and developing analytical tools in Excel. Crunches stats in sports, movies and life.
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